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Poll Says Obama Holds Slight Lead Over McCain

Democrat Winning Over Independents

POSTED: 4:35 pm EDT October 21, 2008
UPDATED: 12:14 am EDT October 22, 2008

Democrat Barack Obama leads Republican John McCain in the U.S. presidential race by 5 percentage points, according to a survey conducted in October of likely voters.

Obama is leading McCain 50 percent to 45 percent, the October 2008 Franklin and Marshall College Poll found.

The poll was taken in cooperation with Hearst-Argyle Television.

According to survey, Obama leads by 11 points among all registered voters.

Among likely voters, Obama has an advantage among independents, voters outside the South, women, those younger than 35 years of age, college graduates, non-Hispanic blacks, and Catholics.

McCain’s advantage is among Southern voters, those older than 55 years of age, Protestants, fundamentalist Christians, and military veterans.

These patterns of demographic support are roughly the same among all registered voters as they are among likely voters.

The data suggest increased voter turnout will produce an increased electoral margin for the Democratic candidate.

The poll substantial changes among the electorate since the Franklin and Marshall September survey, which occurred prior to both the first debate and the major decline in the stock market.

Since September, Obama’s favorability ratings have risen, up from 43 percent favorable to 51 percent favorable.

McCain's favorable ratings have declined slightly during the same time period, down from 49 percent favorable to 45 percent favorable.

The survey of 1,365 adult registered voters was conducted Oct. 13-19 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percent.

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