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COMMITMENT 2008


All Eyes On Pa. Following Tuesday Primary

POSTED: 3:36 pm EST March 4, 2008
UPDATED: 5:48 pm EST March 4, 2008

The outcome of two large presidential primaries in Texas and Ohio on Tuesday is likely to determine whether Pennsylvania will play a major role next month in picking the Democratic nominee.

There are at least three scenarios that could unfold, each having a different impact on our primary election.

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Both campaigns have already shifted resources to the Pittsburgh area. Sen. Barack Obama already has an office in East Liberty, and Sen. Hillary Clinton is expected to open her local office in downtown Pittsburgh on Friday. But the state of her campaign might largely depend on Tuesday's results.

Clinton has already signaled that whatever happens, she intends to continue her campaign in Pennsylvania. But that might be politically difficult depending on the circumstances.

Scenario No. 1 would be ideal for Clinton. That is, she wins the popular vote in both Texas and Ohio.

If that happens, many experts believe the race would be wide-open again, possibly making Pennsylvania's April 22nd primary a winner-take-all.

"It's probably the greatest thing in modern history, politically, that Pennsylvania would really now serve as the keystone step to the nomination," said political analyst Jerry Shuster.

Scenario 2: Clinton wins Ohio and Obama wins Texas or vice versa.

A split decision means Obama stays the front-runner, and Pennsylvania could give him the chance to deliver a knockout punch to Clinton's campaign.

"Democrats will have the big blood bath, and then they'll kiss and make up," said Shuster.

The final scenario is the nightmare one for Clinton. That is Obama wins both Ohio and Texas.

Many would call for Clinton to drop out, but local Democratic Party leaders have heard she'll keep going.

"So, unless there's some type of a radical blowout on the Obama camp, I think we're going to see Sen. Clinton," said Allegheny County Democratic Chair Jim Bum.

If the primary does continue, the super delegates could choose the Democratic nominee.

Rep. Mike Doyle, who is still uncommitted, said if Obama wins Ohio and Texas, taking an insurmountable lead, he would be reluctant to vote against him.

"I think if Barack Obama wins Ohio and Texas, it's pretty much near the end of the road," said Doyle.

But he said if Clinton wins Ohio and keeps it tight or even wins in Texas, it would set the stage for a brand new race in Pennsylvania where the April primary could determine the party's nominee.

But what if that does not happen?

"I don't think she's going to get out of it easily," said Doyle. "I mean, she's fought hard, and she is the type of person that doesn't give up easily."


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Commitment 2008

Delegate Count:

Democrats Total

2,024 Needed (Explainer)

1.Obama1,886
2.Clinton1,718
3.Edwards18 (Out)
Republicans Total

1,191 Needed (Explainer)

1.McCain1,413
2.Huckabee286 (Out)
3.Romney260 (Out)
4.Paul19

Source: Associated Press

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